The art and science of dating
After the "double dip" recession of the 80's, the recovery brought the business cycle to record highs.This led to the third-longest period of economic expansion into the summer of 1990.
I had many reader suggestions, and I reviewed them all.Shortly thereafter the Fed eased up, thereby avoiding a recession.At the end of the day, the NBER never called a recession in '67. Model had nearly spotless performance in predicting the recessions of the 1970's.In part two, Bob and I take a close look at the recession of 1957. Bob and I illustrate the ways in which policymakers can and do impact the business cycle and how this interacts with Mr. In the run up to 1960, tightening by the Federal Reserve as well as fiscal cuts by the Eisenhower Administration led to an economic downturn.In 1967, when the Fed again tightened the yield curve, the model signalled a recession.
The model alerted that the 200 basis point line had been crossed in 2007 but did not decline sharply.